Where Does Toronto Stand Today
Where Does Toronto Stand Today
How can we read the data coming from the Toronto Real Estate Board? Most realtors will tell you that they don't have a crystal ball and that would be a wise and safe approach when interacting with clients. Below is my take, my read of the data and how everything is unfolding.
Since the declines that began in the middle of 2022, we now have data from four spring markets. In a typical new year, and approaching the spring months, Toronto has historically had increases in prices in the new year as more buyers would emerge in the first quarter and in some cases also the second quarter. However, the number of months of price increases is the interesting comparison and the data worth monitoring:
Detached, semi detached and condo products saw 5 months of price increase in the 2023 spring market, which is consistent with what we saw in 2026, a large divergence from 2024 and 2025 where the spring markets were limited and price declines were the headlines shaping the real estate market news. We also saw a divergence for the first time in the condo sector where the price increases are not following the same trends as freehold.
2026 is interesting. From January 2026 to August 2026 we have only seen a total price decline of 1.13% in detached compared with 4.74% in the same time period 2025. For condos, 2.08% in 2026 versus 6.35% in 2025. The margin of declining prices is starting to shrink as less inventory is on the market and sellers have reduced prices to more acceptable buyer levels.
News and media regarding the United States will continue to impact the market negatively for the remainder of the year, but the outlook for 2027 spring looks favourable. It is anticipated we will see an equally long sping market in 2027 with perhaps elevated price increases, although these will remain gradual rather than the large increases we saw in 2022 and prior.
Steven Figol, CPA, CA, Realtor
170 Merton St, Toronto, ON M4S 1A1
416-834-9031
Steven@figolrealestate.com
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